Characterising Web Site Link Structure

The topological structures of the Internet and the Web have received considerable attention. However, there has been little research on the topological properties of individual web sites. In this paper, we consider whether web sites (as opposed to the entire Web) exhibit structural similarities. To do so, we exhaustively crawled 18 web sites as diverse as governmental departments, commercial companies and university departments in different countries. These web sites consisted of as little as a few thousand pages to millions of pages. Statistical analysis of these 18 sites revealed that the internal link structure of the web sites are significantly different when measured with first and second-order topological properties, i.e. properties based on the connectivity of an individual or a pairs of nodes. However, examination of a third-order topological property that consider the connectivity between three nodes that form a triangle, revealed a strong correspondence across web sites, suggestive of an invariant. Comparison with the Web, the AS Internet, and a citation network, showed that this third-order property is not shared across other types of networks. Nor is the property exhibited in generative network models such as that of Barabasi and Albert.Comment: To appear at IEEE/WSE0

Equilibrium Bids in Sponsored Search Auctions: Theory and Evidence

This paper presents a game theoretic analysis of the generalized second price auc- tion that the company Overture operated in 2004 to sell sponsored search listings on its search engine. We present results that indicate that this auction has a multi- plicity of Nash equilibria. We also show that weak dominance arguments do not in general select a unique Nash equilibrium. We then analyze bid data assuming that advertisers choose Nash equilibrium bids. We offer some preliminary conclu- sions about advertisers’ true willingness to bid for sponsored search listings. We find that advertisers’ true willingness to bid is multi-dimensional and decreasing in listing position.auctions, sponsored search.

Multi-keyword multi-click advertisement option contracts for sponsored search

In sponsored search, advertisement (abbreviated ad) slots are usually sold by a search engine to an advertiser through an auction mechanism in which advertisers bid on keywords. In theory, auction mechanisms have many desirable economic properties. However, keyword auctions have a number of limitations including: the uncertainty in payment prices for advertisers; the volatility in the search engine's revenue; and the weak loyalty between advertiser and search engine. In this paper we propose a special ad option that alleviates these problems. In our proposal, an advertiser can purchase an option from a search engine in advance by paying an upfront fee, known as the option price. He then has the right, but no obligation, to purchase among the pre-specified set of keywords at the fixed cost-per-clicks (CPCs) for a specified number of clicks in a specified period of time. The proposed option is closely related to a special exotic option in finance that contains multiple underlying assets (multi-keyword) and is also multi-exercisable (multi-click). This novel structure has many benefits: advertisers can have reduced uncertainty in advertising; the search engine can improve the advertisers' loyalty as well as obtain a stable and increased expected revenue over time. Since the proposed ad option can be implemented in conjunction with the existing keyword auctions, the option price and corresponding fixed CPCs must be set such that there is no arbitrage between the two markets. Option pricing methods are discussed and our experimental results validate the development. Compared to keyword auctions, a search engine can have an increased expected revenue by selling an ad option.Comment: Chen, Bowei and Wang, Jun and Cox, Ingemar J. and Kankanhalli, Mohan S. (2015) Multi-keyword multi-click advertisement option contracts for sponsored search. ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology, 7 (1). pp. 1-29. ISSN: 2157-690

A Loss Function for Generative Neural Networks Based on Watson's Perceptual Model

To train Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to generate realistic imagery requires a loss function that reflects human perception of image similarity. We propose such a loss function based on Watson's perceptual model, which computes a weighted distance in frequency space and accounts for luminance and contrast masking. We extend the model to color images, increase its robustness to translation by using the Fourier Transform, remove artifacts due to splitting the image into blocks, and make it differentiable. In experiments, VAEs trained with the new loss function generated realistic, high-quality image samples. Compared to using the Euclidean distance and the Structural Similarity Index, the images were less blurry; compared to deep neural network based losses, the new approach required less computational resources and generated images with less artifacts.Comment: Published at the 34th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2020

The added value of online user-generated content in traditional methods for influenza surveillance

Abstract There has been considerable work in evaluating the efficacy of using online data for health surveillance. Often comparisons with baseline data involve various squared error and correlation metrics. While useful, these overlook a variety of other factors important to public health bodies considering the adoption of such methods. In this paper, a proposed surveillance system that incorporates models based on recent research efforts is evaluated in terms of its added value for influenza surveillance at Public Health England. The system comprises of two supervised learning approaches trained on influenza-like illness (ILI) rates provided by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) and produces ILI estimates using Twitter posts or Google search queries. RCGP ILI rates for different age groups and laboratory confirmed cases by influenza type are used to evaluate the models with a particular focus on predicting the onset, overall intensity, peak activity and duration of the 2015/16 influenza season. We show that the Twitter-based models perform poorly and hypothesise that this is mostly due to the sparsity of the data available and a limited training period. Conversely, the Google-based model provides accurate estimates with timeliness of approximately one week and has the potential to complement current surveillance systems

Privacy-Preserving Crowd-Sourcing of Web Searches with Private Data Donor

Search engines play an important role on the Web, helping users find relevant resources and answers to their questions. At the same time, search logs can also be of great utility to researchers. For instance, a number of recent research efforts have relied on them to build prediction and inference models, for applications ranging from economics and marketing to public health surveillance. However, companies rarely release search logs, also due to the related privacy issues that ensue, as they are inherently hard to anonymize. As a result, it is very difficult for researchers to have access to search data, and even if they do, they are fully dependent on the company providing them. Aiming to overcome these issues, this paper presents Private Data Donor (PDD), a decentralized and private-by-design platform providing crowd-sourced Web searches to researchers. We build on a cryptographic protocol for privacy preserving data aggregation, and address a few practical challenges to add reliability into the system with regards to users disconnecting or stopping using the platform. We discuss how PDD can be used to build a flu monitoring model, and evaluate the impact of the privacy-preserving layer on the quality of the results. Finally, we present the implementation of our platform, as a browser extension and a server, and report on a pilot deployment with real users

Neural network models for influenza forecasting with associated uncertainty using Web search activity trends

Influenza affects millions of people every year. It causes a considerable amount of medical visits and hospitalisations as well as hundreds of thousands of deaths. Forecasting influenza prevalence with good accuracy can significantly help public health agencies to timely react to seasonal or novel strain epidemics. Although significant progress has been made, influenza forecasting remains a challenging modelling task. In this paper, we propose a methodological framework that improves over the state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy of influenza-like illness (ILI) rates in the United States. We achieve this by using Web search activity time series in conjunction with historical ILI rates as observations for training neural network (NN) architectures. The proposed models incorporate Bayesian layers to produce associated uncertainty intervals to their forecast estimates, positioning themselves as legitimate complementary solutions to more conventional approaches. The best performing NN, referred to as the iterative recurrent neural network (IRNN) architecture, reduces mean absolute error by 10.3% and improves skill by 17.1% on average in nowcasting and forecasting tasks across 4 consecutive flu seasons